Craps Probabilities
Thursday, 25 September 2008 01:35

As there are many different betting possibilities on the Craps table, the probabilities of each vary according to the bet made. Here are the probabilities of some of the more popular bets.

The probability of winning a bet on the pass line is 8:36, whereas a don’t pass line bet is only 4:36

After the come out roll, Don’t Come bets (house edge 1.402%) are marginally better than a pass line bet (house edge 1.414%)

With an odds bet, as the seven is the most likely outcome of a roll and you are betting on a point being rolled first, you will get better than evens money when you win. If the point is 6 or 8, the payout odds are 6:5. If the point is a 5 or a 9, the payout odds are 3:2 and if the point is a 4 or a 10, the payout is 2:1

The probability of rolling a double is 1:36. However for different doubles there are different numbers of losing rolls that can occur before a double is rolled. Therefore, with eight losing rolls, the probability of winning a hard 4 bet is 1:9. With ten losing rolls, the probability of winning a hard 6 bet is 1:11, which is why a hard 6 pays more

The house edge on two number horn bets (15:1) is 11.11% and on one number horn bets (30:1) it is 13.89%

For all rolls the possibilities are as follows:

2. 35-1 (one possible combination)
3. 17-1 (two possible combinations)
4. 11-1 (three possible combinations)
5. 8-1 (four possible combinations)
6. 31-5 (five possible combinations)
7. 5-1 (six possible combinations)
8. 31-5 (five possible combinations)
9. 8-1 (four possible combinations)
10. 11-1 (three possible combinations)
11. 17-1 (two possible combinations)
12. 35-1 (one possible combination)

 
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