Texas Holdem Probabilities
Thursday, 25 September 2008 03:34
The odds in Texas Hold’em for some of the more significant starting hand combinations can be shown as follows:
An AK suited hand has odds of 331:1
An AA hand has odds of 220:1
AA, KK or QQ has odds of 72.7:1
Suited cards, Jacks or better has odds of 54.3:1
Suited connectors have odds of 24.5:1
Knowing your pot odds is also important especially when playing online as with this medium you do not have the benefits of being able to read other players as you would do in a live poker hand situation. Also the cards that are called outs, which are those that will complete your hand, can be determined in relation to your pot odds to help you decide if your hand is worth continuing with.
If for example you were already holding a pair of tens, then you would naturally hope for another ten on the turn and the river to boost your hand to a strong trip. As there are two remaining tens in the deck, otherwise known as “outs,” this information can help you make your decision.
Once you know how many outs are available, you need to figure out your pot odds. In the simplest terms, your pot odds are basically the relationship between the value of the pot and the amount of money you need to make on your next bet to stay in the hand. While it is easy to figure out that if there is $50 in the pot and your subsequent call is $10, then your pot odds are 5:1, it won’t always be so simple a calculation. This is ok, as you don’t need precision, just a fairly close approximation to base your decision on.
Having calculated your pot odds ratio, you should compare it with your ratio for obtaining the card you need to improve your hand, which is determined by the number of outs you have against the number of unseen cards still in the deck.
Taking an example, if you hold say the 8 spades and 10 hearts and the board has two hearts, 5 diamonds, seven spades and nine hearts, you have an outside chance of a straight draw. This means you have eight possible outs (the four 6s and four jacks to make your hand). Now, analysing your pot odds will help you decide whether to risk calling the bet, or folding.
From the 52 cards in the deck, you hold two and there are four on the board meaning the other 46 cards are unknown. With eight outs, you divide 46 by 8 to get roughly 6:1 odds. By looking at the pot you can calculate the odds you’ll get if you win. Assuming there is $100 in the pot and you have to put in a further $10 to call. This creates your pot odds of 10:1.
When you chances of winning a hand are greater than the pot odds, you should call.
While there is of course no guarantee you’ll get the card you want, by sticking to this pot odds calling rule you will win more than you lose. You should also remember that any money you may have already contributed to the pot should be considered part of the total pot and not factored into your equation as this will not only complicate matters, it could produce a false result leading to you betting wrongly and losing.
In all cases, remember that if the odds of getting the card you need to make your best hand are lower than the pot odds, you should always bet.





